Bainbridge Island Real Estate Market Report: October 2026

HAS WINTER ARRIVED EARLY?

Unfortunately for Sellers, Buyer Demand Says Yes

Let’s jump right in, because this one’s a doozy.

Over the previous three years, Bainbridge has averaged 31% more pending sales in October than September. Looking back 12 years, October outperformed September eight times, with pending sales increasing an average of 24% in those years. In other words, history tells us that two out of every three years October brings a welcome surge in buyer demand, absorbing some of the available inventory before the seasonal slowdown firmly takes hold in November.

But 2026 broke that pattern, and not in the way home sellers were hoping.

October of this year saw just 16 pending sales, a staggering 52% drop from September. To put the magnitude of this slowdown into perspective, in the past years when October pending sales declined from September, the average drop was just 10%. This year’s plunge was more than 5X that average, a much steeper decline than historical trends would have suggested.

Last month I wrote that September “also saw the strongest number of pending sales (33) on record for the month, a figure 10% higher than the average seen in the three years prior to 2020. This leads me to believe the trend of strong closed sales will continue into October, setting up a strong finish for the year.”

As it turns out, I was wrong. Wrong in a big way. Maybe some buyers who would ordinarily have gone under contract in October decided to make their moves a month earlier, pulling demand forward into September. 

So, what does history tell us about the rest of 2026? Looking back 15 years, every November posted fewer pending sales than October, and in 12 of those years saw December’s pending sales decline even further. If history is any indication, the odds of a meaningful rebound in buyer demand before year’s end aren't particularly encouraging. Unfortunately, it appears the seasonal slowdown may have arrived a full month early.

The irony is that October's weather felt like a second summer, with unusually warm temperatures and historically dry conditions (less than an inch of rain recorded at SEA compared to the seasonal average of 3.4”), the housing market didn't get the memo. While Mother Nature was extending summer, buyers may have already begun their winter hibernation, retreating from the market ahead of the holidays.

There is one potential wildcard the historical data doesn't account for: this week’s midterm elections. Hopefully, the buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the elections to pass now have the clarity they need to make their move. The eternal optimist in me anticipates a post-election surge in buyer demand before the Seahawks’ bye week (the week of Thanksgiving). 

After being so spectacularly wrong about October, let's hope I'm right in a big way on this one.

Check out my Bainbridge Market Report below for a closer look at all the month’s metrics and trends.

Thanks,

Jason

P.S. Sharing the love of some clients

TESTIMONIAL 

We hired Jason because he came across as a hardworking professional. As we collaborated with him to put our house on the market, we found his organizational skills on another level compared to the agents we have used in the past for 10+ house transactions. Besides detailed checklists and calendar planning, both online and in-person, Jason also leveraged his strong network of service professionals, and helped manage all of the work needed to get the house ready to go on the market and get the best value. Jason was courteous, communicated proactively, and made time to meet face to face and be on-site on the property when we couldn’t. I would highly recommend Jason, he personally makes sure all details are accounted for, and has in-depth knowledge of the local market and relevant real estate law.

• Jonathan Weeks & Kathryn Robinson