Whose Market Is This, Anyway?

Numbers Say One Thing. The Mood Tells Us Something Else.

 

Traditionally, we’ve measured whether it’s a buyer’s or seller’s market by a simple stat: Months of Inventory. That’s the number you get when you divide the total active listings by the number of homes sold in the previous month.

 

In the Puget Sound region, the metric has always translated to: 

• Seller’s market: less than 4 months  
• Balanced market: between 4-6 months 
• Buyer’s market: more than 6 months 

 

So far, so good. But here’s the twist.

 

In May 2025, Bainbridge Island posted 2.9 Months of Inventory. Based on the old rulebook, that’s a clear “strong seller’s market.” In fact, some national outlets are putting it in headlines and bold caps.

 

But this rule needs a rewrite

 

I believe the market activity during the pandemic forever changed our perspective. If you lived through 2021, when Bainbridge averaged just 0.6 Months of Inventory, you remember what a true seller’s market felt like. Homes sold in hours. Offers poured in. Buyers waived every contingency imaginable. Between 2020 and 2022, we averaged just 1.1 Months of Inventory. That was a market like no other.

 

That frenzy, for better or worse, reset expectations. Today, 3 months of inventory feels slow as molasses by comparison.

 

This market feels different

 

Today’s sellers are cutting prices to stay competitive. They’re accepting offers with contingencies and terms that would’ve been deal-breakers in 2021. And most notably, they’re anxious.

 

Buyers, meanwhile, are breathing easier. They’re negotiating hard. They’re no longer forced to offer over asking price and waive all protections just to win.

 

So, what kind of market is this?

 

If we go by the old inventory formula, it’s a seller’s market. But if we judge by who’s got the upper hand in negotiations – and listen to the sentiment on the street – it feels much more like a buyer’s market.

 

I will confidently say we are in a buyer’s market. Yes, you all know me to be a data-driven guy, so I’m clearly ignoring the data. 

 

But this is a people business. And if I’m going to help you understand where things stand today, I’ve got to focus on what matters most: how it feels to be in the market right now - and how to navigate it.

 

Want the full picture?

 

Please check out my Bainbridge Island Real Estate Market Report with all the key stats, trends, and insights you need to make smart decisions, whether you’re planning to buy, sell, or just stay informed.

 

Thanks,

Jason

 

P.S. Sharing the love of some clients

We hired Jason due to his waterfront expertise and insightful recommendations during our initial meeting. His strength lay in skillfully focusing on crucial puzzle pieces to confidently position our complex property for a niche buyer, effectively reshaping our understanding of how to strategically market our package of two homes. His initial price range and collaborative valuation process boosted our confidence in setting the listing price, and we felt empowered with the final decision. We would readily recommend Jason to others; his expertise, professionalism, and approachability will make for an excellent combination. We knew we made the right choice in hiring him.

       - Kevin and Amy Ryan