How Are Fall Sales Like Fall Temps?

Simply Put - They Both Have Cooled 

 

Just as predictable as the leaves falling and steady rain returning to the PNW in October, the pace - and frenetic energy of - Bainbridge Island home sales has officially slowed down as we slip into the holiday season.

 

Overall, 2025 has demanded patience from those selling their homes. For those sellers who are active on the market right now, that couldn’t be more true. While it still feels like yesterday that homes had a dozen or so showings in a weekend and the offer review date rewarded anticipation with the excitement of a few offers, those times (RIP, May 2020 to June 2022) are long gone. 

 

Case in point: 

• October saw a 30% month-over-month decrease in the number of closed sales, one of the steepest declines on record and reminiscent of the 51% drop between September and October of 2022, back in the initial few months of the major shift the market took at end of the pandemic-driven frenzy.
• Only one home sold in October for over asking price. ONE! 
• Sellers’ leverage is down (fewer multiple offers, more financing contingencies, more inspection contingencies).
• Sale prices are down, both YTD average/median, as well as the average percent of list price received.

 

So what does this all mean? To me, it is market-wide evidence of what I have been feeling in my work with both buyers and sellers in the Bainbridge Island real estate market:

 

• Buyers are nervous about the state of the economy and they are in no rush to write offers.
• Buyers that do write offers are brazen because they believe they are in control. 
• Sellers are anxious wondering when their next showing is going to happen. 
• The serious sellers negotiate, and those that are not serious just don’t sell.  

 

Does this mean I’m acting like Chicken Little and screaming that the sky is falling along with the rain? Not at all. Ultimately, the temperature of a housing market can be felt in the average sale price, and YTD 2025 is down by only 1.8%. While a decrease nonetheless, that is practically a rounding error and much better than the 5.6% decrease from 2023 to 2024. 

 

And of course, every type of market has ups and downs. It’s worth noting that 9 of the last 30 years saw YOY decreases: five of those were during the “the crash” that started in 2008, and two were during this post-covid cool off we’re in the midst of witnessing.  

 

But if history is any indication, which it always is, the Bainbridge Island housing market will eventually stop cooling and, just like the temperatures of spring, start rising again. 

Please check out my Bainbridge Market Report below to learn about all of the month’s metrics and trends.

 

Thanks,

Jason

 

P.S. Sharing the love of some clients

Jason did exactly everything he promised to do, when he said he'd do it, which is not something most real estate agents do. I appreciated work with Jason because of his professionalism: he does it right.

       - Carlton Swan