Is Buying a House Like Buying Jam?

The Inventory Crisis is Over - So Why Are Sales So Slow? 

 

As a trained scientist, I have developed systems that blend aspects of psychology with a data-driven approach to help people make well-informed decisions. One of my favorite perspectives to share is “The Jam Experiment,” which was conducted by Sheena Iyengar (Columbia University Business School) and Mark Lepper (Stanford University Department of Psychology) in 2000. It was the beginning of what is now known as “choice overload.” 

 

At a boutique grocery store, the percentage of people who purchased jam after sampling at a booth offering six options was compared to a booth offering 24 possibilities. The succinct version is that although more options attracted more shoppers, fewer options led to significantly higher purchase rates. Said differently, having too many options causes reduced buying decisions. 

 

I share this with my buyer-clients as part of my intake process because I want them to understand how their brain’s natural wiring is impacting their decision-making process. Recently, one client responded with “Am I being too picky?” Maybe, maybe not. I followed up with my belief: There is never a right time to buy the wrong house and never a wrong time to buy the right house. A further part of my approach with my buyer-clients is to help them truly understand the housing stock they are interested in so that they can make confident decisions when the right home comes around, even if it’s at the wrong time in their life. 

 

So far in 2025, the Bainbridge Island real estate market has displayed this phenomenon  – choice overload – in full view. Year-to-date through July, we have seen 320 new home listings on the island, the most since 2019 and about 90% of the average seen through July from 2017 to 2019. So inventory levels (supply) are just about back to what used to be normal, meaning buyers have all the options they’ve been craving since the spring of 2020. On the other hand, year-to-date through July, we have seen just 175 closed home sales (demand), about 75% of the average seen to date from 2017 to 2019.

 

Supply is up, but the demand is not there to match it (and yes, I understand that the world is much more expensive than it was before the pandemic). 

 

I also tell my clients, “The part I hate most about this job is the sales part” because, after all, I am still a teacher at heart. So, at risk of sounding like a sales guy, there hasn’t been a better time to be a buyer in quite some time - honestly. Those who are buying are, on average, negotiating asking prices down more than we’ve seen in a very long time. In fact, I recently closed a buyer-client for 7.6% under the original asking price after an initial offer that was about 10% under the asking price. 

 

Not only did that buyer know how to be decisive when looking at 24 kinds of jam, metaphorically speaking,  that seller also embraced the meaning of “one in the hand is better than two in the bush.” 

 

Please check out my Bainbridge Market Report below to learn about all of the month’s metrics and trends.

 

Thanks,

Jason

 

P.S. Sharing the love of some clients

We hired Jason based on our first impression of him. His honest demeanor, straightforward approach, and clear depth of knowledge regarding the Island market gave us sincere peace of mind. We appreciated that Jason always raised the right questions to ensure proper discussion and evaluation of every situation. As we progressed, our confidence was reinforced when we saw how proactive, prepared, patient and perceptive he is. We strongly recommend Jason to anyone looking to purchase a home on Bainbridge Island.

       - Sarah & Ben Upsall